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CRO Glossary

Statistical Significance

A measure of how unlikely it is that an observed result happened by random chance alone, typically expressed as a p-value.

Statistical significance answers a narrow question: if there were truly no difference between variants, how surprising would this data be? It's usually summarized as a p-value, and a common threshold is p < 0.05, meaning there's less than a 5% chance of seeing a difference this large (or larger) if the variants were actually identical.

Significance is not the same as importance. A test can be statistically significant but practically trivial (a 0.1% lift on a huge sample), or it can be a large, meaningful effect that isn't yet significant because the sample is too small — often because the test wasn't given enough time to reach its planned minimum detectable effect. It also says nothing about the probability that the effect is real in a Bayesian sense, which is a common point of confusion versus Bayesian inference.

A frequent mistake is checking significance repeatedly during a test and stopping as soon as it crosses the threshold — this is the peeking problem, and it inflates false positives well above the stated 5%. Proper use of significance requires deciding your sample size and test duration in advance, or using a sequential testing method designed to allow continuous monitoring.

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