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CRO Glossary

Type II Error

Failing to detect a real effect in a test, incorrectly concluding there is no difference between variants when one actually exists.

A Type II error happens when an experiment concludes there's no meaningful difference between control and variant, but a real difference actually exists in the underlying population. It's the mirror image of a Type I error (a false positive): instead of seeing an effect that isn't there, you miss an effect that is there.

The most common cause is underpowered tests — too little traffic, too short a duration, or too small an effect size relative to the sample collected. Teams chasing quick answers often end tests early or run them on low-traffic pages, which inflates the risk of a Type II error. The probability of avoiding this mistake is captured by statistical power (commonly targeted at 80%), meaning even well-designed tests accept some chance of missing real winners.

For example, imagine a new checkout button copy genuinely improves conversion by 2%, but the test only runs for a few days on a low-traffic page. The sample size may be too small to reach significance, so the team concludes 'no significant difference' and discards a change that would have helped. Because Type II errors are silent — no alert fires, nothing looks obviously wrong — they quietly shrink a team's long-run experimentation win rate. Running a sample size calculator before launch and resisting the urge to stop tests early are the main defenses.

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