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CRO Glossary

False Discovery Rate

The expected proportion of 'winning' results that are actually false positives, especially relevant when running many tests or metrics at once.

False discovery rate (FDR) matters once you're running many experiments or tracking many metrics within a single experiment. If you test 20 metrics and use a 5% significance threshold on each, you'd expect roughly one metric to show a "significant" result purely by chance even if nothing actually changed. FDR quantifies and controls for this multiple-comparisons problem, rather than trusting each p-value in isolation.

This is directly relevant to CRO teams that track a long list of secondary and guardrail metrics alongside a primary metric. Without correction, teams can convince themselves a redesign "significantly improved" some obscure metric like time-on-page-for-mobile-Safari-users, when it's really noise. Methods like the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure adjust significance thresholds to keep the expected rate of false discoveries under control across all the comparisons being made.

For example, a company running 50 experiments a quarter, each declaring significance at p<0.05, should expect around 2-3 "wins" to be false positives even if every single test had zero real effect. Programs that don't account for FDR tend to accumulate a graveyard of shipped changes that don't actually move the business, because a portion of their historical "wins" were statistical noise.

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