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CRO Glossary

Confidence Interval

A range of plausible values for a metric's true effect, given the observed data and a chosen confidence level.

A confidence interval expresses uncertainty around an estimate. If a test shows a conversion lift of 8% with a 95% confidence interval of [2%, 14%], it means that if you repeated the experiment many times, 95% of such intervals would contain the true effect — the true lift is plausibly anywhere in that range, not just the single point estimate.

Wide intervals signal you need more data or a longer test; narrow intervals signal a more precise estimate. This is closely tied to statistical power and sample size — small samples produce wide, often unhelpfully vague intervals even when a point estimate looks impressive.

A practical habit: instead of asking "is this test a winner?", ask "what does the confidence interval say?" If the interval spans both negative and positive values (e.g., -1% to +9%), the test hasn't ruled out the possibility that the change actually hurts conversion, even if the average result looks positive.

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