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CRO Glossary

Bayesian Inference

A statistical approach that updates the probability a variant is better as data accumulates, rather than testing against a fixed null hypothesis.

Bayesian inference frames experiment results in terms of probability directly: "there's a 92% chance variant B has a higher conversion rate than A," rather than the frequentist framing of p-values and null hypotheses used in classic statistical significance testing. It starts with a prior belief about likely outcomes and updates that belief as data comes in, producing a probability distribution over the possible effect sizes.

Practitioners often prefer Bayesian methods for CRO because the output is more intuitive to non-statisticians (a direct probability of being better, plus an estimated range of the lift) and because well-designed Bayesian methods tolerate continuous monitoring better than naive frequentist significance testing, reducing the practical impact of the peeking problem.

For example, a Bayesian dashboard might report "Variant B has a 87% probability of beating Variant A, with an expected uplift of 4.2%, credible interval 1%–7%." This is often easier for a product manager to act on than a p-value, though the underlying uncertainty and the need for adequate sample size don't disappear just because the framing is more intuitive.

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